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Tequila_Wolf wrote (edited )

Looking forward to seeing what people have to say about it. Having read it years ago and now again, the general message is now something I mostly just nod along with instead of voraciously embrace.

That said, is there reason to think that the author's timeline, that "we may have twenty years (probably more)" is reasonable? How apocalyptic should we really understand this?

I'd like us also to keep in mind a quote by Aragorn!, from a review they did of another's book, which I think of quite often.

What [the writer] continues to miss is that for the bulk of humanity, including civilized people, this apocalypse has already happened. We are currently the over-populated survivors of total destruction, blinking in the sunlight of our own loss, wandering aimlessly for food and shelter.

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selver wrote

I'd be interested in how close the predictions are too. Without a background in it, I always find the environmental / climate change talk impossible to get into. I don't know who's predictions can actually be trusted at all. It's an extremely alienating topic in general.

That's a great aragorn quote.

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RosaReborn wrote

Apocalyptic predictions are always arbitrary because the effects of climate change are not a singular event like a nuclear holocaust. Instead it occurs on the scale of years and decades, even centuries. That is a great quote you posted because there are already people who must contend with the consequences of environmental exploitation everyday. Those in the West may not really be effected for decades more in a significant way. The super rich can insulate themselves and may not be significantly effected for a hundred years or more. Your level of impact depends on the resources you depend on and where you are in the world.

Basically the timeline is somewhat arbitrary but in 20 years the strain on society will likely be so great due to climate refugees and diminishing resource extraction that normal functioning of society will be more likely to collapse

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zoneReNovator wrote (edited )

Yeah, it feels like a lot of the timescales you see to do with climate change are to do with when the effects become uncontrollable and irreversible and when the rapid temperature change is high enough to match historical periods of ecological collapse. This really doesn't seem to indicate of how soon we will see the worst effects of collapse, so much as how those effects cannot be mitigated.

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ziq wrote (edited )

The super rich can insulate themselves and may not be significantly effected for a hundred years or more.

Most westerners will be insulated by default. It's the global South that is going to be in the sea, much of the West won't feel real effects for a long time. That's why they're shutting down their borders right now to keep us out. There are a few exceptions, like Florida, but places like that are so wealthy that they've been delaying the effects by spending billions to pump the floodwaters out.

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BigGeorge wrote

We're already working to turn Florida into an underwater amusement park, it's all good.