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An_Old_Big_Tree wrote

So the US just started a war with Iran, it looks like.

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[deleted] wrote (edited )

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celebratedrecluse wrote

Iran has nuclear capabilities, either a couple warheads or the means to obtain them. At this point, now that the nuclear deal was cancelled, they would be purely foolish to not have fast-tracked their development/acquisition process.

BUT the idea of the regime using the nuclear weapons in a defensive war on their own soil is utterly ridiculous to me. They may, however, enable their extensive paramilitaries to attack Saudi Arabia, which would cripple the world oil market. They wouldn't need nuclear weapons in order to win the war against the US, their best tools are the extensive SCUD arrays which are very hard for the US/SA to find and target, but which can unleash horribly devastating attacks on the industrial base. With the huge costs to the US economy, and potential decentralized attacks on the US and its infrastructure throughout the middle east, Iran would win a protracted war of occupation within a few years. Lot of the theocrats might die, but Iran isn't...going anywhere. A war of occupation is utterly foolish, particularly given the mountainous and large nature of the territory. It's just a question of how much pain is going to be inflicted on the people living where the war hits, particularly people in Iran.

US military ran a simulation in 2002, a war game designed to simulate the Iranian and US militaries facing off in the present context. The Iranian side won, and so they've rigged the wargames ever since. It even influenced the push to war in Iraq-- Iraq is basically a giant buffer zone so that SA and its massive fossil fuel infrastructure is protected.

But a SCUD flies right over that buffer, Iron Domes being statistically damned. US will pay dearly for this foolish endeavour, but the pain will be borne by the besieged people of Iran.

The whole elite class of the US military is in collective denial about their newfound lack of capacity to expand, Iran is a geopolitical externality they weren't able to squelch and its nuclear capability signals, especially to these elites, the waning of American hyperpower status. It's the end of the end of history, and they are getting pretty apocalyptic with their sociological ego death...let us hope we all get through this in one piece, the Western man is most dangerous when cornered and overstrung.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/2002-us-military-conducted-iran-war-simulation-iran-won-82906

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Pop wrote

CrimethInc:

Even if the US escalation of conflict with Iran doesn't trigger a ground war, it represents another step towards a US foreign policy that presumes a future of global civil war. We have to show what authoritarians of all stripes stand to gain from this.

First, the US escalation confirms our thesis that Trump encouraging Erdoğan to invade Syria was not a step towards US withdrawal from the region, but a reshuffling of US alliances towards more authoritarian players.

The US is sending thousands more troops to the Mideast now.

Supposed "anti-imperialists" who parroted Trump's lie that he was pulling the US out of "endless wars" naïvely gave cover to his effort to abet Turkish and Russian imperial ambitions while setting the stage for him to escalate conflict with Iran.

But Trump isn't seeking a conventional war with Iran; he wants to throw US military weight around without being drawn into ground operations.

He doesn't care about potential consequences for US civilians that may be targeted by Iranian proxies worldwide—he may even welcome them.

Since 2001, Republicans have have only benefited from policies that have polarized whole populations, resulting in the rise of ISIS, terror attacks, and civilian deaths.

They count on the threat of Islamic fundamentalism to make their own authoritarianism look appealing.

No amount of brute force can hold the neoliberal order together—and Trump is not trying to maintain it. Rather, he aims to ensure that the conflicts that succeed it will play out along ethnic and national lines rather than uniting everyone against the ruling class he represents.

In this context, we have to identify every effort to turn us against each other, building solidarity across national, ethnic, and religious lines while doing everything we can to topple authoritarian governments from DC to Tehran. Against the state & capitalism! #nowarwithIran

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ziq wrote

It would simply be devastating for civilization and global trade if Iran retaliated by wiping the Saudi oil fields off the face of the earth :(((((

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alerdz5 wrote

What influence does Iran have over the Saudi oil situation? Huge influence? I am ignorant here. Searching for the truth. Really gotta know. Can't not know. I wouldn't be able to maintain myself in that state. lol With all the jabs between the countries around the world, between each country I don't know that the world affairs as they are will remain calm. That counts for something. On the topic of world affairs, time will tell what is going on. I am looking forward to seeing changes. I mean for the better, the more peace, the better. Nothing but smiles and compliments between countries would be too good as a state. lol There's a lot to think about when going over world affairs.

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ziq wrote (edited )

There was a big leak in my roof that was flooding the floor and making the plasterboard mould so i went on the roof to seal it with expanding foam but the ladder fell over and it started raining hard. I managed to climb down a cherry tree.

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An_Old_Big_Tree wrote

Haven't had the energy to do work for over a week, which is not good.

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An_Old_Big_Tree wrote

If anybody has any knowledge on how people with a forest garden would cope with baboons and monkeys coming and eating all your food, let me know!

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Majrelende wrote (edited )

The river is finally low enough to cross— I believe the last flood washed the stones into a small ford.

Edit: Nevermind— I was wrong. It was still too deep.

I remembered to take the milkweed out from its rainwater bowl today— The fibres are about the length of cotton and of a shining white appearance. Hopefully, I will have enough of it for some small project.

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rot wrote

what can you make from milkweed fibers?

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Majrelende wrote

Yarn and probably paper.

The yarn can be used to make anything made with yarn, within the confines of the properties of milkweed fibres.

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mofongo wrote

2020 has been awful so far, I got sick. Luckily, I found a video of Zap Brannigan reading Trump quotes to cheer me up. Enjoy.

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rot wrote

whose ready for ww3? i'm not (ミዋ ﻌ ዋミ)

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