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CivilizationsEnd wrote

I have been studying this for over a decade, and my current feelings are that there are many possible futures, of varying likelihoods. The ones in which western civ does not collapse and be replaced are not very likely. But what does that mean?

It appears that the financial system has avoided another global financial crisis via unlimited money printing by sacrificing the integrity of the usd. This will lead to the end of the Bretton Woods/Petrodollar system, which is why you are starting to see geopolitics and conflict heat up again; the global order is falling apart.

We are years away from a serious energy crisis that will dwarf the 1973 oil embargo, and it will be permanent. I can go into this in more detail but it is based in physics and is completely unavoidable.

We are a decade away from widespread permanent water shortages that will cause mass migration out of areas without water.

And of course, climate change will cause massive, overlapping famines.

Any one of these might be survivable for a civilization. All of them at once wonโ€™t be.


wanderingghost wrote

I'm interested in hearing more about the energy crisis if you have a minute to elaborate.

And yeah. I pretty generally agree. I think things will stay stable-ish until the 2040s. Then all hell will break loose as the systems that were staying together by a thread completely unravel. We're not there yet, but we're close, and getting closer each day.