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Ennui wrote (edited )

Power thrives on the state of permanent crisis. The threat or presence of a war would be a pretty good excuse to take social and economic issues off the radar for a year, or even just wipe them out entirely. Then again, war has to imply some change in the balance of international power. Cold war recreated, or something else?

Part of me wants to see the en masse draft dodging in the U.S.

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gwenlostinthesaucestacy wrote

I know someone who plans to shoot their child in the foot if they're drafted. They live in southern U.S.

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celebratedrecluse wrote

would the US really bring back the draft? That was a key part of their political instability in the previous era of uprisings, the 1960s, i think. How likely is this?

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gwenlostinthesaucestacy wrote

That's a good point and I'm probably not the best person to ask, but I don't feel like it's out of the question. I'm not as well-versed in history/geopolitics/economics/etc. as I'd like but I don't know how much I trust in the ability of the U.S. government to learn from their mistakes or to do anything that makes sense, really. A bit of an over exaggeration on my part but I just mean I wouldn't be surprised.

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celebratedrecluse wrote

Russia will annex more of Ukraine, and get bogged down in guerilla warfare with France and other NATO powers. The conflict will produce more international white supremacists, providing for the international white supremacist forces an abundant opportunity for battlefield experience and organizational development. China will make moves on Taipei but get pushed back by American led naval power in a bay of pigs style failure. The major variable is, whether China and Russia are able to avoid conflict, Korean peninsula stability issues, and what India tries to do while China is expanding in the SCS

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86944 wrote

I'm worried all right. I don't know if it'll break out into actual war, but brinkmanship is definitely back on the menu.

I'm glad I built a fallout shelter.

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masque wrote (edited )

As much as I hate the "greater good" logic of Mutually Assured Destruction, I do think it's worth noting that ever since the widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons there hasn't been a full-on war directly between nuclear superpowers. I feel like that's unlikely to change, although we might be see more Korea- or Vietnam-style cold-war-ish proxy wars, possibly in Ukraine and elsewhere. I feel like it's cliche to say there's a "new cold war" between the US and China, but there's some element of truth to it.

That being said, it does kinda seem like global politics is becoming a big game of chicken, where whoever has the guts to go the farthest wins (most obvious in the annexation of Crimea and the assassination of Suleimani), so it's possible that everyone will eventually realize this and start pushing the envelope all the way up to conventional war, or (god forbid) limited use of nuclear weapons, without actually triggering MAD.

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__0 wrote

At the beginning of covid war would have been catastrophically mutually destructive due to the lack of vaccines, having a vaccinated military creates a huge advantage. full blown war right now would be hugely irresponsible still though due to the cascading fallout, not just political fallout if you know what I mean.

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Basil wrote

If it's Russia vs. Nato, I don't think Russia is that stupid unless they can drag in China somehow. Russia is strong, but it's simply not that well equipped to handle the US and western Europe in a war at the same time.

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