The numerous statements about Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine have become the headlines all over the world. The more so, analysts connect the planned Belarus-Russia exercise Allied Resolve 2022 to this possible invasion.
The joint exercise Allied Resolve 2022 will be held from 10 to 20 February. In an interview with the Financial Times, Victoria Nuland, the US secretary of state for political affairs, said that they have “18 response scenarios in case Russia decides to invade Ukraine”.
This statement surprised not only Russia, but the Department of State, the White House and other U.S. security agencies. According to Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, they did not have anything to say about it when they were asked the relevant questions.
At the same time all the aims of the planned exercise are already known. It is openly declared that the exercise will practice suppressing and repelling external aggression in the course of a defensive operation, countering terrorism and protecting the interests of the Union State. The exercise will also drill reinforcing state border sections in potential areas of illegal penetration of armed groups into Belarus and shutting down channels of the supply of arms, munitions and other means and also searching for, blocking and eliminating outlawed armed militants and enemy subversive and reconnaissance groups.
Thus, the practicing of defensive actions, such as suppressing and repelling external aggression, is the main task of the Russian and Belarus troops. The more so, “in terms of the strength of the engaged personnel, basic armaments and military hardware, the upcoming inspection is not subject to prior notification in accordance with the 2011 Vienna document,” the Russian Defense Ministry said. So, provocative statements of the analysts are not based on the official information provided by the Russian and Belarus Ministries of Defense and could be named mere speculation and even could cause further tensions and misunderstanding.