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5

asg101 wrote

It's a powder keg ready to explode now, it will not end quietly. Can't happen soon enough.

2

nov wrote (edited )

Good question, but this article/post is not very well researched or organized. For example, it conflates decline of American society with its position is a global empire. There is perhaps a link there (society at home is being bankrupted by overseas adventurism) but it is far from obvious that this is the case. A counter argument may be that the huge military spending is actually the way the economy stays afloat in place of large public works projects. Regardless the author doesnt do a great job of fleshing out their points or really proving much of anything.

The question itself is interesting. I would argue that the American empire has been fairly unique. It is a much softer empire than most. Where most of the effort has been in creating a favorable world order, not direct utilization and exploitation of foreign lands. I think the most explosive parts of the US empire are in the Middle East but I dont know if you could make that part of the world any more explosive. The key US strategic concerns at this point are in Asia. And there the only thing that matters is if the Chinese can maintain course. If China manages to maintain control over its people I dont see why US interests wouldn't naturally shift to Chinese ones.

Overall, totally speculative, but I would come down on the side of soft landing as an empire. As a nation state though ...