Canada, Ontario provincial election is coming up. The Liberal party has had control for a long time. With recent public opinion, Liberals will not win, and are polling in 3rd place.
The election is between PC and NDP, the conservative and socdem parties respectively. PC having a huge early lead, and choosing Doug Ford as Party Leader (pos populist). NDP, despite having little presence in Ontario, has surged in the polls making the predicted huge PC majority into question.
Despite the overall numbers having NDP in the lead, the votes are too concentrated so PC is still aiming for a majority.