I'm not sure what you mean by societal collapse - that seems to have happened plenty already. The world in general has been a dystopia since at least global capitalist colonisation. I think that the collapse generally has been happening since the beginning of extractivism, which includes agriculture.

"Societal collapse" as in a open corrosion of all Institutions. This is vague sorry, I was thinking in a scenario where the average people can't reproduce the actual conditions, a situation where there is no "thin coat" of civility, the whole liberal "human rights" are in check and there is no hope that they will be recuperated.

I agree with you:

The world in general has been a dystopia since at least global capitalist colonisation.

But I can counter argument here and say that people still hang in hope for a better future, they vote for the lesser evil, they separate the garbage, etc. There still a common belief in being Progressive.

I think that the collapse generally has been happening since the beginning of extractivism, which includes agriculture.

This would be the second option I present, but I wonder, with all the Post Pandemics thoughts if we can expect a turning point where all sudden reality will turn gre, if one day we all wake up and the ugliness of the naked king will be shockingly apparent for everyone.

Like the past year with the pre election protest in USA, we had a glimpse of that. In the post Arab Spring too, not sure if I am being more confusing than helpful here.

Desert seems kinda accurate imo. I do not believe that collapse will bring total extinction of the human race, just loads of suffering and a radical change of our environement (because we'd have killed most of it).

Earth was pretty good at self-healing up till now so I don't think the scorched earth would last long. Although the scenario is so new and different predictions might as well be science-fiction.

Disaster strikes some places sooner than others. Even if something drastic happens like the death of capitalism, it’ll be replaced by something equally as shit.

the way earth heals, historically, is to wipe out most life so it can start over

humans have pretty specific requirements to live, including hardcoded temperature thresholds

Collapse is going to resemble the fall of the roman empire or the dissolution of the soviet union more than various fictional depictions.

dissolution of the soviet union

I can see that, and Somalia civil war too come in mind. With the Elysium reference I was trying to bring this notion of "slumification" of the urban landscape soon the state retreat in those places and people are left to their own.

I think this post refers to China prepping to stand a Black Swan and/or Grey Rhino events, maybe this was one of the things I refer to sudden break point

the movie Elysium

lol Please no.

XD. Why not? Better than the new Blade Runner from Villeneuve. I am not thinking about Zombie Apocalypse collapse level, more in an evolution of the Neoliberal politics leading to social disagragation.

I need to check The Road tho, everyone tells me it's a great movie, and Viggo is a great actor imo. Black Mirror I dislike from the bottom of my heart, I think so many people like it bc they relate to the theme itself, I can get it will age poorly and will be soon dated (At least I hope so).

I don't mean exactly any disaster or random apocalypse, I think my question was unclear about it, I was thinking more in societal/society as in some sociology category to explain the relationship between people and govt, economy, institutions.

current tech R&D

You mean biotech and other tech that can release a grey goo or some existential risk?

I was thinking in a scenario where the average people can't reproduce the actual conditions, a situation where there is no "thin coat" of civility, the whole liberal "human rights" are in check and there is no hope that they will be recuperated.

This is how it is for most of the people I know, except the civility thing, which I think is nothing more than a boogeyman. Humans can find new normals in any hell. If there will be a loss of civility, it will be for short periods. Like we have now. I don't know what it's like everywhere, but I know a few places, and the world is hell and suffering, but people are built to take unbelievable beatings.

But I can counter argument here and say that people still hang in hope for a better future, they vote for the lesser evil, they separate the garbage, etc. There still a common belief in being Progressive.

In the global north, sure, since people there live off the horrors of whole continents. It's not like that around here.

if one day we all wake up and the ugliness of the naked king will be shockingly apparent for everyone.

I don't think so. Too many are invested in their own oppression, enough that they will venerate the naked king. Like they do.

I am all over the place here but I think you made some points for me to think about.

I totally agree when you say that for a lot of people the collapse already happened and there is no hope because life is hell since a long time and they won't woke up for any sudden break bc for them will not mean anything, I think I can notice this in some degree and compare the country I am living in (north) from my youth in a city in LatinAmerica.

I can counter argument here and say that people still hang in hope for a better future

I was not taking in consideration a lot of things, and damn! I was almost propagating the beloved neoliberal ethos. Thanks for waking me up.

Earth works in cycles, you see it everywhere , There is a carbon cycle, hydrology cycle, predator/prey cycle. It looks like we are moving from the regular carbon cycle to a super carbon cycle. Runaway global warming has a natural end-point, that is outside of the normal live, die, renew, and moves into the release, saturate, sequester cycle of nearly all carbon being released into the environment by heat and fire, and then flushed into the oceans until the environment cools down again. We have seen evidence of this happening in the past. We won't enjoy the process, and unless someone figures out how to re-freeze the ice caps, we ain't stopping it.

As far as societal collapse? Some people are already living in collapse, more will join them until we are all experiencing it.

Honestly you really don't have to worry that much about tech doing anything other than mass surveilance and more efficient exploitation. That's most giant tech companies right there.

All the other stuff you mentioned is mostly hype to inflate stock prices and let the super rich imagine they're living out some sort of Randian fantasy.

I'm late to the party here but as others have said, periods referred to as collapses by historians are in some cases as long as 300-500 years or even longer. Its unlikely that there will be a sudden breaking point. However, everything is relative right? I feel the collapse will have been sudden if it happens in my lifetime.

So getting specific here: I consider the pinnacle of socially accepted societal success for the current order -- one might call neoliberal capitalism -- to have been around 1990-1998 (If you want to know why, I can share but just keeping it short here). I think that since then, neoliberal capitalism has experienced a decline and if the system is completely shattered by 2060 (the most likely cause of this would be fallout from climate change) then I would personally consider that a sudden breaking point.

Consider that on that timeline: an American born in 1995 who buys a home with a mortgage when they turn 30 might not reach the end of their mortgage before societal collapse. This is not only possible but highly likely. I use that example because home ownership and mortgages are a foundational aspect of the storytelling that neoliberal capitalism uses to justify its prominence and also an underlying cause of its decline.

I don't see the dropping sperm counts as an issue. A massive decline in fertility might be one of the best ways to save humanity from itself. As long as the fertility rate doesn't hit zero, the species will survive.

Maybe that's not a good thing. I still hold on to hope that it is, that humanity can become better than it is now. But that's dreams and foolishness, not wisdom.

Let's take the example of global heating (climate change). Everybody denies and doesn't do enough mitigation. Then they're all surprised, together. The climatic movements start slowly. But people's reaction will be panicking too late to do much!